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Weekly Economic Bulletin 12.10.2026 - 16.10.2026
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Published by
Erta Audit
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Type
Bulletin
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Date
October 19, 2026
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Reference
Weekly Economic Bulletin 12.10.2026 - 16.10.2026
Weekly Economic Bulletin 12.10.2026 - 16.10.2026
Weekly Türkiye Economic Bulletin
ISSUE 2026/11
October 12–16, 2026 · Market close: Friday, October 16, 2026
Executive Summary
External balance and reserves
In the August balance of payments released by the CBRT on October 13, the current account posted a USD 4.053 billion surplus; the surplus excluding gold and energy was USD 8.205 billion. The 12-month current account deficit was approximately USD 42.1 billion. In the week of October 9, the CBRT’s total reserves increased by USD 4.187 billion to USD 171.575 billion.
Public finances
The September central government budget announced by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance on October 15 posted a TRY 532.2 billion deficit; according to BloombergHT, this was the highest monthly deficit of the year. In September, expenditures rose 34.1% year-on-year and revenues 22.7%. In January–September, the budget deficit was TRY 1,840.3 billion, while the primary balance posted a TRY 410.8 billion surplus.
Markets and monetary policy
The BIST 100 ended the week down 4.33% at 11,722.46; based on CBRT exchange rates, USD/TRY rose 0.47% and EUR/TRY 0.74%. In the October Survey of Market Participants, the year-end CPI expectation was 29.63% and the 12-month-ahead expectation 23.89%. The MPC meets on October 22; the policy rate is 37%.
Domestic demand and housing
Retail sales volume increased 10.1% year-on-year in August; housing sales fell 9.3% year-on-year in September to 142,390 units. The IMF lowered its 2026 growth forecast from 2.9% to 2.7%.
Market Dashboard
USD/TRY
49.3573
▲ +0.47%
Previous: 49.1274 (October 9)
EUR/TRY
55.5179
▲ +0.74%
Previous: 55.1112 (October 9)
BIST 100
11,722.46
▼ −4.33%
Previous: 12,253.16 (October 9)
CBRT policy rate (1-week repo)
37.00%
━ Unchanged
Previous: 37.00% · MPC: October 22
Gram gold (TRY)
6,657.25
▲ +0.27%
Previous: 6,639.49 (October 9)
CBRT total reserves (USD bn)
171.575
▲ +2.50%
Week of October 9 · Previous: 167.388 (week of October 2)
▲ increased ▼ decreased ━ unchanged · Arrows and colours indicate only the direction of each indicator: green = increase, red = decrease, grey = unchanged; they do not represent an assessment of economic positivity.
Source note. USD/TRY and EUR/TRY are the FX buying rates in the CBRT’s daily exchange-rate table (October 9 and 16). The BIST 100 closing level and gram-gold value are from BloombergHT’s 18:30 market summary; both endpoints use the same source. Each market uses its own closing and measurement time. Total reserves equal the sum of gross foreign-exchange reserves (USD 64.567 billion; +4.241) and gold reserves (USD 107.008 billion; −0.054); data for the week of October 9 were released on October 15, and data for the week of October 2 on October 8.
Official Indicators
TurkStat — Releases of October 12, 13, 14, 15 and 16
In the August Trade Sales Volume Index released on October 12, total sales volume increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.6% year-on-year. Retail sales rose 1.4% month-on-month and 10.1% year-on-year, while wholesale trade declined 0.2% month-on-month and 1.9% year-on-year.
August Foreign Trade Indices were released on October 13: the export unit value increased 8.5% year-on-year and the import unit value 13.7%; export quantity fell 0.4% and import quantity 2.8%. The terms of trade declined from 94.3 to 90 on an annual basis. On October 14, the September Agricultural PPI fell 1.99% month-on-month and increased 12.93% year-on-year.
On October 15, construction production in August increased 2.3% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month; non-building structures rose 21.8% year-on-year while building construction fell 0.9%. The number of paid employees rose 1.99% year-on-year to 16,409,588 (industry −1.0%, construction +3.4%, trade-services +3.3%). On October 16, September housing sales fell 9.3% year-on-year to 142,390 units: first-hand sales 51,519 (+3.9%), second-hand sales 90,871 (−15.3%).
Commentary. The increase in the import unit value exceeding that of the export unit value by 5.2 percentage points illustrates the price component of the annual decline in the terms of trade; quantities were weak on both sides. The double-digit annual increase in retail sales volume and the 15.3% decline in second-hand housing sales (retail in August, second-hand housing in September) point to diverging domestic-demand signals.
CBRT — Releases of October 13, 15 and 16
The August balance of payments released on October 13 showed a current-account surplus of USD 4.053 billion. The surplus excluding gold and energy was USD 8.205 billion; in other words, these two items together contributed approximately USD 4.15 billion in the direction of a net deficit. Direct investment recorded a net inflow of USD 141 million (non-residents’ investment in Türkiye USD 719 million, residents’ investment abroad USD 578 million). The 12-month current-account deficit was approximately USD 42.1 billion.
The Securities Statistics released on October 15 covered the week of October 9. In the domestic market, non-residents recorded net equity sales of USD 248.2 million and net purchases of Government Domestic Debt Securities (GDDS, outright purchases) of USD 451.1 million; the net change in non-general-government sector issues was −USD 479.7 million. The domestic-market total was −USD 276.8 million (−248.2 + 451.1 − 479.7); the foreign-market figure (−588.4) is not included in this total, while the overall total was −USD 865.1 million.
According to weekly flow interest-rate data (as reported by BloombergHT), the interest rate on 1–3 month TRY deposits was 36.4%, while the average commercial-loan rate was approximately 39%. The October Survey of Market Participants was released on October 16 (71 participants): year-end CPI expectation 29.63% (previous 29.61%), 12-month-ahead 23.89% (23.70%), 24-month-ahead 17.94% (18.32%); year-end USD/TRY expectation 51.5471; 2026 growth expectation 2.9% (3.0%); current-account deficit expectation USD 48.5 billion (50.1). The expected policy rate is 36% at the next meeting and 35% at the following meeting. On the same day, the September Residential Property Price Index increased 1.2% month-on-month and 22.3% year-on-year; the real annual change was −5.7%. The New Tenant Rent Index rose 26.6% year-on-year (real −2.4%).
Commentary. The spread between the commercial-loan rate and the deposit rate is approximately 2.6 percentage points; 0.6 percentage points of this comes from the deposit rate being below the policy rate, and around 2 percentage points from the commercial-loan rate being above it. The policy rate has a 1-week tenor, deposits are 1–3 months, while the commercial-loan rate is an average; therefore, the series are not directly comparable by maturity. The current-account surplus excluding gold and energy is roughly twice the total surplus; the difference shows the combined net-deficit contribution of these two items to the August balance. The year-end CPI expectation is very close to the September CPI annual rate of 29.73% (TurkStat, October 5).
Ministry of Treasury and Finance, BRSA and CMB — Releases of October 15 and 16
In the September central government budget announced by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance on October 15, revenues were TRY 1,253.1 billion (year-on-year +22.7%) and expenditures TRY 1,785.4 billion (+34.1%); the deficit was TRY 532.2 billion. Primary expenditure was TRY 1,522.4 billion (+39.1%) and interest expenditure TRY 263.0 billion (+11.2%); the primary balance posted a TRY 269.2 billion deficit (September 2025: TRY 73 billion deficit). In January–September, the deficit was TRY 1,840.3 billion; revenues TRY 12,107.8 billion (+34.5%), expenditures TRY 13,948.1 billion (+36.4%); the primary balance posted a TRY 410.8 billion surplus.
According to BRSA weekly data as of October 9, total loans were TRY 28,636.8 billion (weekly −5.5) and deposits TRY 32,347.0 billion (−17.8). Consumer loans were TRY 3,512.7 billion (+10.8; housing 845.5, vehicle 41.9, personal 2,625.4), individual credit-card balances TRY 3,471.8 billion (−61.7), and non-performing loans TRY 928.8 billion (+14.2).
The CMB Weekly Bulletin No. 2026/70 dated October 16 approved debt-instrument issues for Tüpraş (TRY 20 billion), Anadolu Efes (TRY 15 billion), Koç Finansman (TRY 3.55 billion), and Ereğli Tekstil (TRY 4 billion), as well as a bonus capital increase for Mercan Kimya from TRY 190.37 million to TRY 571.11 million. Criminal complaints and two-year trading bans were decided for 22 persons in VSNMD shares and 14 persons in IEYHO shares.
Commentary. With primary expenditure rising 39.1% while interest expenditure increased 11.2%, roughly half of the September deficit came from the primary balance (TRY 269.2 billion) and half from interest expenditure (TRY 263.0 billion); the primary balance moved from a TRY 73 billion deficit to a TRY 269.2 billion deficit. The nine-month primary balance, however, remains in surplus. In the BRSA series, the TRY 61.7 billion weekly decline in credit-card balances was largely offset by increases in other items, resulting in only a TRY 5.5 billion decline in total loans.
Table 1 — Official data released during the week (October 12–16, 2026)
Regulatory Calendar
Scope note. This section covers regulations published in the Official Gazette concerning tax legislation (Tax Procedure Law, Corporate Tax Law, Income Tax Law, VAT Law, SCT Law), the Social Security Institution, the Public Oversight Authority / TFRS-TAS, the BRSA and the CMB; no regulation was listed in these categories for the week of October 12–16, 2026. Board decisions, draft communiqués, announcements and administrative implementation letters are outside the scope of this section.
Economic Agenda
Ratings and international institutions
Fitch had kept Türkiye’s rating at BB-/Stable in July, while S&P had kept it at BB-/B with a Stable outlook in April; S&P’s second 2026 review had been scheduled for October 16.
The IMF World Economic Outlook report (October 13) lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Türkiye to 2.7% (July: 2.9%); the 2027 forecast remained unchanged at 3.6%. The average inflation forecast was 31.2% for 2026 and 26.5% for 2027.
Foreign investors and markets
The BIST 100 closed at 11,722.46 on October 16, down 2.89% on the day and 4.33% on the week. In the CBRT’s data for the week of October 9, released on October 15, non-residents recorded net equity sales of USD 248.2 million and net GDDS purchases of USD 451.1 million.
According to BloombergHT’s October 16 report, MSCI froze the foreign inclusion factor, number of shares, new additions and size-segment transitions in Türkiye indices; it was stated that if progress remains insufficient by June 2027, MSCI may open a consultation on Frontier or Standalone status.
Companies
Among the major issuances approved in CMB Weekly Bulletin No. 2026/70 were Tüpraş’s TRY 20 billion and Anadolu Efes’s TRY 15 billion debt-instrument issues, and Şekerbank’s TRY 1 billion rights issue (BloombergHT). Misyon Yatırım Bankası (TRY 6 billion), Albaraka Türk (TRY 5 billion) and Aktif Yatırım Bankası (TRY 700 million) received approval for asset-backed securities issuance.
Global context
Fed Chair Warsh gave no signal on October 16 regarding this month’s interest-rate decision; according to BloombergHT, U.S. September inflation was at a five-month high. While Houthi attacks and U.S.–Iran tensions continued in the Middle East, the IEA warned of a diesel crisis. Trade Minister Bolat attended the Türkiye–EU High-Level Trade Dialogue in Brussels on October 13.
My Views from a Risk Management Perspective
In light of this week’s data, I would particularly draw the attention of company owners and finance and accounting executives to the following points.
1. Receivables from the public sector.
A budget deficit alone does not indicate that public-sector receivables will be paid late; this depends on the relevant administration’s appropriation position and the maturity structure of the receivable. In view of the TRY 532.2 billion September deficit, I believe companies working with public institutions would benefit from monitoring payment realisations by administration and showing public-sector receivables separately in ageing reports.
2. Input costs and pricing.
The decline in the terms of trade shows the relative movement of import and export prices at the country level; it does not mean that every company using imported inputs will experience margin compression. I believe it is useful to monitor planned and actual gross profit margins together with the company’s own FX position, pricing power and inventory structure.
3. Customers linked to construction and housing.
The 0.9% annual decline in building construction and the 15.3% decline in second-hand housing sales suggest that companies working with these sectors may benefit from rechecking advance-payment, collateral and contract terms.
Next Week’s Calendar
Table 2 — Week of October 19–23, 2026
SENTENCE OF THE WEEK
The cost of public borrowing turns today’s deficit into tomorrow’s interest expense.
Sources
Official institutions (direct)
CBRT — daily exchange rates (October 16), (October 9); Securities Statistics; Weekly Money and Banking Statistics; MPC announcement 2026-38
CMB — Weekly Bulletin 2026/70
Market source
BloombergHT — BIST 100 and gram gold (October 9 and 16, 18:30 market summary)
Official institution data compiled through secondary channels
Official CBRT data (compiled via Anadolu Agency and BloombergHT) — balance of payments, reserves, Survey of Market Participants, Residential Property Price Index, weekly flow interest rates
Official TurkStat data (compiled via Anadolu Agency and BloombergHT) — trade sales volume, foreign trade indices, Agricultural PPI, construction, paid employees, housing sales
Official Ministry of Treasury and Finance data (compiled via BloombergHT) — September budget
Official BRSA data (compiled via Anadolu Agency) — weekly banking data, October 9
Secondary sources
BloombergHT — IMF World Economic Outlook (October 13), MSCI assessment, TurkStat September CPI (October 5), IEA/Houthi/U.S.–Iran developments, Bolat’s Brussels meetings, Fed statement, MPC survey, Treasury borrowing calendar
Anadolu Agency — October economic calendar (MPC, TurkStat Consumer Confidence Index schedule), S&P statements
This bulletin has been prepared for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or regulatory advisory services. The data were compiled as published on the relevant dates and subsequent revisions may alter the bulletin.
Muhsin GÜNYELİ
Sworn-in CPA · Independent Audit Partner