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Weekly Economic Bulletin – 10.08.2026–16.08.2026
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Published by
Erta Audit
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Type
Bulletin
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Date
August 17, 2026
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Reference
Weekly Economic Bulletin – 10.08.2026–16.08.2026
Weekly Economic Bulletin – 10.08.2026–16.08.2026
Issue 2026/3 · 10.08.2026 – 16.08.2026
Weekly Economic Bulletin
Türkiye Economic and Regulatory Panorama
Executive Summary
1
In its 2026-III Inflation Report published on 13 August, the CBRT revised its year-end inflation forecast upward, raising the point forecast to 28%, while leaving its 24% interim target unchanged.
2
The BIST-100 closed the week at 14,172.26 points, gaining 2.85% and moving into record territory; an intraday high of 14,250 points was tested during the week.
3
CBRT gross reserves reached USD 178.4 billion as of 7 August, their highest level in five months, with a weekly increase of USD 13.9 billion (FX +7.2; gold +6.7).
4
TurkStat data presented a mixed picture: June industrial production contracted by 1.4% year-on-year, June retail sales volume increased by 11.8% year-on-year, while July housing sales declined by 17.0% year-on-year.
5
Brent crude oil was the week's strongest-performing item amid geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz (~5.3%, ≈USD 88/barrel).
Market Dashboard · Weekly Close (14.08.2026)
USD/TRY
47.88
▲ 0.37% weekly
BIST-100
14,172.26
▲ 2.85% weekly
Policy Rate
37.00%
━ unchanged (MPC 10 September)
Türkiye CDS (5Y)
≈219 bp
▼ declined during the week *
Brent (USD/barrel)
≈87.9
▲ 5.3% weekly
Gold (USD/oz)
≈4,400
▲ 1.4% weekly *
Gold (TRY/gram)
6,757
▲ 1.40% weekly
CBRT Gross Reserves
USD 178.4 bn
▲ USD 13.9 bn (7 Aug)
The week's most notable movement took place on Borsa İstanbul: the BIST-100 index rose by 2.85% to 14,172.26 points, entering record territory. The deceleration in headline CPI in July and the CBRT's maintenance of its cautious and determined monetary policy stance in the Inflation Report supported risk appetite. EUR/TRY increased by 0.57% to 55.49, while the benchmark two-year government bond yield declined throughout the week to 41.56%.
On the commodities side, Brent crude recorded the sharpest increase of the week following Iran's statements concerning the Strait of Hormuz and related supply concerns, rising to approximately USD 88 per barrel (~5.3%). Gold gained around 1.4% in USD terms, while gram gold increased to TRY 6,757. Türkiye's five-year CDS premium declined to 219 basis points during the week, continuing the improvement in the country's risk premium.
Official Indicators and Institutional Decisions
CBRT 2026-III Inflation Report (13 August 2026)
In the third Inflation Report of 2026, presented by CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan, the year-end inflation forecast was revised upward: the point forecast was increased from 26% in the previous report to 28%. Nevertheless, the Bank maintained its 24% interim target, as well as its year-end projections of 15% for 2027 and 9% for 2028, together with its 5% medium-term target. The main reasons cited for the revision were increases in diesel and natural gas prices, an upward revision to the import price assumption, and an increase in the food inflation assumption to 28.5%. The policy rate, defined as the one-week repo rate, remains unchanged at 37.00%; the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be held on 10 September 2026.
COMMENT. Despite the upward revision to the forecast, the preservation of the interim target and interest-rate path reflects the CBRT's determination to maintain its tight stance while acknowledging a delay in the disinflation process. The persistence of food and services inflation indicates that even the 28% year-end forecast remains subject to upside risks.
Sharp Increase in Foreign Exchange Reserves
According to the CBRT's weekly statistics, total gross reserves increased to USD 178.4 billion as of 7 August 2026, reaching their highest level in the past five months; the weekly increase amounted to USD 13.9 billion. Of this amount, USD 71.0 billion consisted of foreign exchange reserves (weekly increase of USD 7.2 billion), while USD 107.3 billion consisted of gold reserves (weekly increase of USD 6.7 billion). The reserve accumulation reflects the combined impact of strong foreign exchange inflows and the increase in gold prices.
COMMENT. The USD 7.2 billion increase in foreign exchange reserves demonstrates that the overall reserve growth was not driven solely by the valuation effect arising from higher gold prices; it also indicates that the CBRT has effectively strengthened its foreign exchange liquidity buffer. This is a positive development that expands the Bank's policy room against short-term exchange-rate volatility.
TurkStat Data: Industry, Retail Trade and Housing
TurkStat data released during the week presented a mixed picture. Calendar-adjusted industrial production contracted by 1.4% year-on-year in June 2026 (10 August). Retail sales volume increased by 11.8% year-on-year in June, while total trade sales volume declined by 4.5% year-on-year (11 August). Housing sales in July 2026 declined by 17.0% year-on-year to 123,603 units; by contrast, mortgaged housing sales increased by 23.7% year-on-year to 23,888 units (14 August).
COMMENT. Despite the contraction in industrial production, the continued strength of retail demand indicates that domestic-demand-driven price pressures persist. The sharp increase in mortgaged housing sales, meanwhile, suggests that softer expectations regarding interest rates have begun to provide some support to housing demand.
Treasury Cash Realisations and Budget Calendar
According to the July 2026 cash realisations announced by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, the Treasury cash balance recorded a deficit of TRY 395.65 billion. Interest expenditures amounted to TRY 325.9 billion in July, while cumulative interest expenditures for the January–July period reached approximately TRY 1.76 trillion. July central government budget realisations are scheduled to be announced on 17 August 2026, in the following week.
COMMENT. The approximately 51% year-on-year increase in interest expenditures makes the fiscal cost of tight monetary policy increasingly visible. The release of the central government budget figures on 17 August will be one of the week's key data points in assessing the course of the primary balance.
Regulatory Calendar (Official Gazette · 10–16 August 2026)
Note: No significant new regulation directly concerning tax legislation (Tax Procedure Law / Corporate Tax / Income Tax / VAT) or social security legislation was published in the Official Gazette during the week. From a monetary policy perspective, the most important document of the week was the CBRT's 2026-III Inflation Report published on 13 August, which is discussed above.
Economic Agenda and Market Commentary
Credit Ratings
During the week of 10–16 August, no scheduled or unscheduled rating action concerning Türkiye is expected from Moody's, Fitch, S&P Global or Scope Ratings. Under the 2026 calendar, Fitch (26 July, confirmation of the 'BB-' rating with a stable outlook) and Moody's (24 July) have completed their assessments; the next scheduled reviews are S&P on 16 October and Scope on 23 October.
Market Commentary
Expectations of a gradual improvement in the inflation outlook and the strengthening of CBRT reserves contributed to the BIST-100's move into record territory. The decline in Türkiye's domestic risk premium (CDS) and the geopolitically driven increase in oil prices should be monitored as two key external variables that may exert opposing pressures on the country's energy import bill and current account balance in the period ahead.
Next Week's Calendar (17–22 August 2026)
- 17 August — July central government budget realisations (Ministry of Treasury and Finance)
- 21 August — August Consumer Confidence Index (TurkStat)
- During the week — Treasury domestic borrowing auctions (under the August programme)
- MPC — The next meeting will be held on 10 September 2026 (no interest-rate decision this week)
- Global — Positioning ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 27–29 August; minutes of the U.S. FOMC meeting will also be monitored
Quote of the Week
“While the Central Bank raised its forecast, it kept its target unchanged; the market, meanwhile, renewed its record. This was a week in which both the cost of maintaining a tight stance and the patience required to sustain it were read simultaneously.”
Sources
- CBRT Inflation Report and weekly reserve statistics — tcmb.gov.tr
- TurkStat statistical bulletins (industrial production, retail trade and housing sales) — tuik.gov.tr
- Ministry of Treasury and Finance cash realisations — hmb.gov.tr
- Official Gazette, 14 August 2026 · No. 33340 — resmigazete.gov.tr
- Market data (BIST, FX rates, bonds, CDS and commodities) — İş Yatırım, Bloomberg HT, Investing
* CDS and gold (USD/oz) levels may vary between data providers; therefore, the figures are presented on an approximate basis. Items requiring confirmation will be updated in the subsequent report.
Muhsin GÜNYELİ
Sworn-in Certified Public Accountant · Istanbul