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Weekly Economic Bulletin 02.11.2026 - 06.11.2026
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Published by
Erta Audit
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Type
Bulletin
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Date
November 9, 2026
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Reference
Weekly Economic Bulletin 02.11.2026 - 06.11.2026
Weekly Economic Bulletin 02.11.2026 - 06.11.2026
Weekly Türkiye Economic Bulletin
ISSUE 2026/14
Period: November 2–6, 2026 (Monday–Friday) · Market close: Friday, November 6, 2026
Executive Summary
Inflation came in above expectations
October CPI, released by TurkStat on November 3, was 2.58% month-on-month and 29.77% year-on-year; the annual rate had been 29.73% in September. The BloombergHT expectations survey had pointed to 2.42% monthly and 29.59% annual inflation. Domestic PPI (D-PPI) was 1.65% month-on-month and 27.41% year-on-year.
Equities and gold strong, FX moderate
The BIST 100 closed the week at 11,482.60 (previous Friday: 10,759.56; +6.72%). Gram gold rose from TRY 6,279.72 to TRY 6,541.76 (+4.17%), while USD/TRY, based on the CBRT FX buying rate, increased from 49.7747 to 49.9824 (+0.42%).
Foreign outflows and lower reserves
According to data for the week of October 30 released by the CBRT on November 5, non-residents were net sellers of USD 66.27 million in equities and USD 750.39 million in Government Domestic Debt Securities (GDDS). Gross reserves fell by USD 4.08 billion to USD 158.11 billion, while net reserves excluding swaps declined by USD 6.48 billion to USD 24.28 billion.
Treasury cash balance posted a deficit
The October Treasury cash balance announced by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance on November 6 posted a TRY 329.9 billion deficit. Interest payments were TRY 279.1 billion, while the primary cash balance posted a TRY 50.9 billion deficit.
Market Dashboard
USD/TRY
49.9824
▲ 0.42%
Previous Friday: 49.7747
EUR/TRY
55.8603
▲ 0.26%
Previous Friday: 55.7149
BIST 100
11,482.60
▲ 6.72%
Previous Friday: 10,759.56
CBRT policy rate
36%
━ No decision this week
Cut by 100 bp on October 22 (37% → 36%)
Gram gold (TRY)
6,541.76
▲ 4.17%
Previous Friday: 6,279.72
CBRT gross reserves (USD bn)
158.11
▼ 2.52%
Week of October 23: 162.19 · Week of October 30 (released November 5)
▲ increased (green) · ▼ decreased (red) · ━ unchanged (grey). Arrows and colours indicate only the direction of the indicator; they do not imply economic positivity.
Source note. USD/TRY and EUR/TRY are the CBRT daily FX buying rates dated October 30 and November 6 (indicative in nature). BIST 100 and gram-gold values are from BloombergHT’s 18:30 market summaries. Gram gold reflects the Grand Bazaar session close, while the BIST 100 reflects the Borsa İstanbul session close; as each market uses its own closing time, measurement times differ across items. Reserve data compare the week of October 30, published by the CBRT on November 5, with the previous week (October 23).
Official Indicators
TurkStat — November 3 release
October CPI was 2.58% month-on-month, 29.77% year-on-year and 27.52% compared with December 2025. Annual inflation edged slightly above September’s 29.73%, while the monthly increase exceeded the BloombergHT expectation of 2.42%. Domestic PPI (D-PPI) was 1.65% month-on-month and 27.41% year-on-year (25.41% compared with December 2025).
Among the main expenditure groups, the highest annual increases were in education (48.86%), health (43.29%) and housing (40.24%); transportation rose 36.39%, and food and non-alcoholic beverages 27.73%. On a monthly basis, clothing and footwear increased 12.58%, food 3.50%, and housing 2.84%. The largest contributions to annual inflation came from food (6.81 percentage points), transportation (6.10 points) and housing (4.71 points).
Commentary. The annual increase in D-PPI (27.41%) was approximately 2.4 percentage points below CPI (29.77%). Because the two indices have different scopes and weighting structures, this difference should not be interpreted as a pass-through rate from costs to consumer prices.
CBRT and BRSA — November 5 releases
According to the CBRT’s weekly securities statistics, non-residents, excluding price and exchange-rate effects, recorded net sales of USD 66.27 million in equities and USD 750.39 million in Government Domestic Debt Securities (GDDS) in the week of October 30; combined net sales in equities and GDDS were USD 816.66 million. In the previous week, net sales were approximately USD 100 million in equities and USD 163 million in GDDS.
According to international reserves released the same day, gross reserves fell by USD 4.08 billion to USD 158.11 billion, while net reserves excluding swaps declined by USD 6.48 billion to USD 24.28 billion. FX deposits of domestic residents adjusted for exchange-rate effects increased by USD 585 million.
According to BRSA weekly data (October 30), total loans increased by TRY 224,223 million week-on-week to TRY 29,000,779 million; TRY 82,115 million of the increase came from individual credit cards and TRY 32,405 million from consumer loans. Deposits, including interbank deposits, fell by TRY 112,999 million to TRY 32,739,311 million, while non-performing loans increased by TRY 18,034 million to TRY 983,118 million.
Commentary. The GDDS component of foreign investor sales (USD 750.39 million) was about eleven times the equity component. The decline in reserves and foreign outflows moved in the same direction; reserve changes also include exchange-rate effects and transactions by the public sector and domestic residents. Roughly half of the weekly increase in loans came from credit-card and consumer-loan items.
Ministry of Treasury and Finance and CMB — November 6 releases
The Treasury cash balance posted a TRY 329.9 billion deficit in October. Cash revenues were TRY 1,391 billion and cash expenditures TRY 1,721 billion; TRY 1,442 billion of expenditures were primary expenditures and TRY 279.1 billion were interest payments. The primary cash balance posted a TRY 50.9 billion deficit.
Commentary. Of the TRY 329.9 billion cash deficit in October, TRY 279.1 billion corresponded to interest payments, while the primary cash balance also posted a TRY 50.9 billion deficit. Interest payments were equivalent to 16.2% of cash expenditures and 20.1% of cash revenues; the interest burden therefore represents a significant share of cash financing needs.
CMB Weekly Bulletin No. 2026/79 (November 6) approved Lider Faktoring’s privately placed bond/commercial paper issuance with a TRY 800 million ceiling and Yapı Kredi Faktoring’s offshore issuance with a USD 100 million ceiling. The bulletin also contained decisions to file criminal complaints concerning TMPOL, ISVEA and TERA shares and impose two-year trading bans on the relevant persons; the activities of Trive Yatırım Menkul Değerler were temporarily suspended as of 00:01 on November 7.
Table 1 — Official data released during the week (November 2–6, 2026)
Regulatory Calendar
Scope note. This section includes only tax, financial reporting and regulatory authority (BRSA, CMB, Public Oversight Authority) regulations for which the Official Gazette issue and effective date are documented; no regulation meeting this criterion was identified for November 2–6, 2026.
Economic Agenda
Ratings
No rating decision on Türkiye was announced during the week. According to the 2026 calendars reported by Foreks, Moody’s (January 23, July 24), Fitch (January 23, July 17) and S&P (April 17, October 16) have no scheduled review date in November.
Foreign Investor Flows
According to CBRT data, non-residents were net sellers in both equities (−USD 66.27 million) and GDDS (−USD 750.39 million) in the week of October 30; details are provided in the CBRT section above.
Companies
According to companies’ Public Disclosure Platform (KAP) disclosures, compiled from BloombergHT daily agenda pages, Q3 net profit was TRY 3.5 billion for Migros, TRY 8.5 billion for Halkbank (solo), TRY 10.4 billion for İş Bankası, and TRY 3.4 billion for Enka; Ülker reported a net loss of TRY 546 million and Vestel a net loss of TRY 6.5 billion. It was also reported that, under BRSA Decision No. 11593 dated November 4, the operating licence of Golden Global Yatırım Bankası A.Ş. was revoked, with the decision published in the Official Gazette dated November 6.
Global Context
In the Asian session on November 5, the Kospi fell as much as 8.8% intraday, triggering a circuit breaker, while the Nikkei 225 declined 5.7% (BloombergHT). In the United States, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 51 in November (expectation 48, previous 48); 12-month inflation expectations fell to 4.3% (previous 4.7%). Euro Area Manufacturing PMI declined to a two-month low (via BloombergHT).
My Views from a Risk Management Perspective
In light of this week’s data, I would particularly draw the attention of company owners and finance and accounting executives to the following points.
1. Passing increases through indexed contracts.
October CPI was 2.58% month-on-month and 29.77% year-on-year; annual increases remain above 40% in education, health and housing. I believe that, for lease, service and supply contracts linked to CPI or PPI, it is useful to review on a contract-by-contract basis which index and period apply and from which date the increase takes effect.
2. Reconciliation and inventory timetable before year-end.
As year-end approaches, early identification of current-account reconciliations, inventory-count planning and items requiring provisions reduces the workload during the closing period; I recommend not leaving this work until December.
3. Valuation of financial investments.
The equity market moved 6.72% in one week. As year-end approaches, it is important to review financial assets instrument by instrument. Article 279 of the Tax Procedure Law, which provides for shares to be valued at acquisition cost, and the amortised-cost or fair-value measurement approaches under TFRS 9 may produce different outcomes; I believe the effects of these differences on the tax base, financial statements and, where applicable, deferred tax should be assessed together.
Next Week’s Calendar
Table 2 — Week of November 9–13, 2026
SENTENCE OF THE WEEK
Inflation erodes not only prices, but also the assumptions embedded in contracts and balance sheets.
Sources
TurkStat — October 2026 CPI and D-PPI (November 3); official TurkStat data compiled via Anadolu Agency and BloombergHT.
CBRT — Weekly securities statistics and international reserves (November 5); official CBRT data compiled via foreks.com and BloombergHT. Daily exchange rates (October 30, November 6; tcmb.gov.tr). MPC announcement (October 22); publication calendar.
BRSA — Weekly banking-sector data (October 30); loan data from the BRSA weekly bulletin (bddk.org.tr), deposits and non-performing loans compiled via Anadolu Agency as official BRSA data.
CMB — Weekly Bulletin 2026/79 (November 6), spk.gov.tr.
Ministry of Treasury and Finance — October 2026 cash balance (November 6); official Ministry data compiled via BloombergHT.
Secondary/market sources: BloombergHT (18:30 market summaries: BIST 100, gram gold; Official Gazette summaries; global agenda; company financial results based on KAP disclosures), Anadolu Agency, foreks.com (economic data calendar; rating calendar). The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was reported via BloombergHT.
Links: aa.com.tr/…/4109355 · bloomberght.com/enflasyonda-ekim-tablosu-3793165 · tcmb.gov.tr/kurlar/202611/06112026.xml · tcmb.gov.tr/kurlar/202610/30102026.xml · bloomberght.com/yabanci-yatirimci-3793638 · bloomberght.com/tcmb-rezervlerinde-…-3793646 · bddk.org.tr/bultenhaftalik · aa.com.tr/…/4112915 · bloomberght.com/hazine-nakit-dengesi-3793825 · spk.gov.tr/data/…/2026-79.pdf · bloomberght.com/piyasalarda-gunun-ozeti-6-kasim-2026-… · bloomberght.com/piyasalarda-gunun-ozeti-30-ekim-2026-…
Legislation: Official Gazette issues dated November 2–6, 2026 (BloombergHT summaries). Access date: November 7, 2026.
This bulletin is for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or regulatory advisory services. The data have been compiled from the institutions and sources indicated and reflect information available as of the publication date.
Muhsin GÜNYELİ
Sworn-in CPA · Independent Audit Partner